Catégorie : Market updates by Fabrizio
While China is facing structural risks from the 3Ds of Debt, Demographics and Deflation as recently coined by Morgan Stanley, the macro backdrop could be defined as CCC with economic data sending Confusing and somewhat Contradictory messages in an overall still Challenging context. Let’s take the latest US data released on Friday. Beyond the upside […]
In general, seasoned investors are wary when they hear or read somewhere that “this time is different”. Interestingly, there have been plenty of articles in the financial press lately about China turning eventually Japanese. With weakening growth and inflation already nearing 0%, the current 2nd largest world economy seems indeed on the brink of experiencing […]
When this letter will hit your screen, I will be in Turin… waiting impatiently for the official return of Cagliari Calcio in Italian Serie A with its first season’s game at 18h30 at Torino’s Olympic Stadium. At this stage, I can still dream about glorious victories and a more than honorable ranking by end of […]
DECALIA Market Updates by Fabrizio Quirighetti, CIO and Head of Multi-Asset Let’s start first by trying to explain the recent USD depreciation against most major currencies. It is basically due to the dollar smile phenomenon, observed about 20 years ago by Stephen Li Jen: the USD tends to outperform other currencies in two extremely different […]
Last week I spoke about the overall resilience of US economy and the unexpectedly strong US equity performance, driven mainly by just a handful mega-tech stocks until recently, which has taken the vast majority of investors (including your humble servitor) by surprise. I tried to explain the reasons in retrospect (unfortunately): too light positioning & […]
Cagliari Calcio finally made it to qualify for Serie A next season by beating Bari yesterday evening with an incredibly miraculous goal at the 94’, which turned into a freezing kill-joy for the 60’000 attendees of the San Nicola stadium. As Yogi Berra would say: it ain’t over ‘till it’s over! For sure, it looks […]
Heading into the right direction, but there is still a long way to go. So, it’s too early to claim victory as “it ain’t over till it’s over”. These sentences may apply to inflationary pressures, as well as the US debt ceiling saga or… the Cagliari Calcio! Yes, my dear readers, after more than 200 […]
As focus on US debt ceiling is intensifying in a context of higher interest rates and growing concerns about economic growth slowdown, the debt sustainability debate is naturally resurfacing. People are thus talking about it (again), but very few have a clue or do something about it because it’s a vast and complex matter. So, […]
So far, so good! Both US companies’ earnings and economy continued to defy downbeat investors’ expectations (included mine) last week. However, as I mentioned one week ago, US equity remains at risk due to its historical and relative stretched valuation, especially in case of any disappointments down on the road (weaker growth, margin compression, regional […]
Food for thoughts or spurious correlation? Japan inflation driven essentially by… food prices in Tokyo Back from the dead? Japan CPI Housing Y/Y% BoJ inflations’ anchor, gone with the wind? Japan Consumers Inflation Expectations These trends aren’t BoJ friends Measures of Underlying Japan Inflation: Trimmed Mean CPI, Weighted Median CPI and Mode CPI Measures of […]
One year after the first Fed’s rate hike, the aggressive fast monetary policy tightening finally bit… What are the consequences on the overall macroeconomic backdrop from current banking-stress? While their magnitude and extent will obviously depend on the depth of these scars on the financial system, as well as the time to close it, we […]
