Catégorie : Market updates by Fabrizio
As focus on US debt ceiling is intensifying in a context of higher interest rates and growing concerns about economic growth slowdown, the debt sustainability debate is naturally resurfacing. People are thus talking about it (again), but very few have a clue or do something about it because it’s a vast and complex matter. So, […]
So far, so good! Both US companies’ earnings and economy continued to defy downbeat investors’ expectations (included mine) last week. However, as I mentioned one week ago, US equity remains at risk due to its historical and relative stretched valuation, especially in case of any disappointments down on the road (weaker growth, margin compression, regional […]
Food for thoughts or spurious correlation? Japan inflation driven essentially by… food prices in Tokyo Back from the dead? Japan CPI Housing Y/Y% BoJ inflations’ anchor, gone with the wind? Japan Consumers Inflation Expectations These trends aren’t BoJ friends Measures of Underlying Japan Inflation: Trimmed Mean CPI, Weighted Median CPI and Mode CPI Measures of […]
One year after the first Fed’s rate hike, the aggressive fast monetary policy tightening finally bit… What are the consequences on the overall macroeconomic backdrop from current banking-stress? While their magnitude and extent will obviously depend on the depth of these scars on the financial system, as well as the time to close it, we […]
Among Credit Suisse most valuable assets as of today What are the lessons to be learned and consequences from SVB fallout and CS debacle? I won’t be long today as there are still a lot of uncertainties in the air (i.e. I probably don’t know much more than you) and I have also to navigate […]
For the last few months, investors have been focused essentially on peak inflation and peak terminal rates, but little attention has been devoted to peak cycle since last summer as the soft landing and even the no-landing scenarios were almost taken for granted. However, the latest events, namely the collapse of SVB (and 2 other […]
For close to 40 years until recently, it has been a fantastic call to be long bond’s duration, especially through passive ETF’s investment in order to keep duration constantly high. For sure, we experienced a secular bond bull market with US 10y yield falling from circa 16% at the beginning of the 80’s to a […]
As expected, Fed and ECB hiked last week their respective target rate by +25bps to 4.50-4.75% and by +50bps to 2.50%, while France beats Italy in the 6 Nations tournament (rugby) yesterday but it wasn’t as smooth and easy for the “coqs bleus”. Despite the still hawkish message they delivered and their overall cautiousness about […]
Yesterday night, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs of Patrick Mahomes won their ticket to the Super Bowl LVII (NFL -American football league- final) by beating the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals respectively. The Super Bowl will take place on February 12th, in Phoenix, with Rihanna taking care of the always […]
Here are the key takeaways: Last week, I shared with you my first 5 out of 10 predictions that could shape financial markets and portfolio returns this year. As we enter 2023 -and as a reminder-, our central macro scenario may be summed up as “less growth (but no hard landing), sticky inflation and higher […]
