Category: Market updates by Fabrizio
At first glance, there’s no doubt about it: the US jobs report for January, released on Friday, showed more than a resilient US labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 353K, largely beating expectations (185k). Furthermore, prior two months readings were revised by a total of +126k, bucking the recent trend of downward revisions. Last but not […]
As we said in French “Après la pluie, le beau temps”… So, after the sadness and the tears related to the loss and mourning of Gigi Riva (Italy’s soccer record goal scorer on top of a legendary and faithful player of the Cagliari Calcio), Italian sport’s fans enjoyed and celebrated the great historical achievement of […]
In a recent press release, the SNB published a preliminary version of its accounts for 2023. After losing CHF 132bn in 2022, it lost again circa CHF 3bn last year. To put these losses in perspective, they represent more than 15% of Swiss GDP and almost 4 times the AuM of Compenswiss (Swiss retirement compensation […]
Last week, I shared with you my first 5 out of 10 predictions that could shape financial markets and portfolio returns this year. As we enter 2024 -and as a reminder-, our central macro scenario may be summed up as “more of the same – but better” … With resilient growth, inflation normalization & rate […]
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future…”. Like every year at the same time, I have indeed to admit it as I look back at my own predictions made at the very beginning of each year. So, it’s now time to see how I scored on my 10 predictions for 2023 (even […]
The latest US employment report put a dent in the Fed’s pivot narrative with somewhat higher than expected nonfarm payrolls (+199k, in line with the last 6 months average) and, more importantly, a lower unemployment rate (-0.2% to 3.7% in November). Indeed, this decline in unemployment rate invalidated, at least theoretically, a recession signal from […]
Latest US data and some Fed members statements reinforced the current optimistic views made of resilient growth and ongoing disinflation. Consumers income and spending are indeed still expanding, manufacturing activity is holding well according to latest ISM, while the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the PCE deflator, decelerated further in October. The headline reading was actually […]
With the US government shutdown averted (for now), Italy government debt no longer in an imminent danger of a cut to junk at Moody’s (outlook was raised from negative to stable) and the qualification of the Nati (Swiss soccer team) for Euro 2024, I am wondering what could derail global equity markets to end the […]
With the end of the year just around the corner if you consider Christmas decorations as a leading indicator, it’s already time to think about the macro scene and markets outlook for 2024. As you all know “it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future”. So, I would love to receive a new […]
At the time this letter will hit your screen I will be on holiday. While I will obviously enjoy it and benefit fully from my days off treat, I am somewhat concerned about the many tricks that markets may play to frighten investors during my absence as a busy data-packed week await us. In the […]
In a week overshadowed by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East after the terrorist attack from Hamas in Israel, the IMF’s latest economic outlook, released last week during the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Marrakesh, went almost unnoticed. While it wasn’t obviously as tragic as many events currently unfolding around us, […]
